Hardwood Herald Option Sept 2025

When I was a teenager, my high school basketball coach had a saying he used almost every practice: “Don’t play outside yourself. Do what you do best.” One time, I took a bit of a wild shot and he yelled, “Allison! Where’d you find that move…on the side of a cereal box?!” That one still makes me laugh 20+ years later. 

I was an all-conference and all-state player and he busted my chops more than anyone. At the time, I didn’t fully understand why he was so hard on me — we’d done well as a team and I’d done well individually. I wanted to score points, rack up hunt-out chase-down blocks, and frankly, get my name in the paper! 

But what he was teaching me was the importance of steady, reliable execution. Trusting that in the long run, the fundamentals work better than flashy or selfish play. He knew that would be better for the team and for me.

Years later, I see that same lesson everywhere. Raising a family, working through career changes and even weathering economic cycles. It isn’t always about the breakthrough seasons. Sometimes the most important stretches are the steady ones, where you put your head down, play clean and set yourself up for future opportunities.

The U.S. hardwood plywood market finds itself in one of those steady stretches today. After several years of turbulence — COVID disruptions, housing volatility, supply chain headaches, inflationary pressure and the constant question of tariffs, we project a stable back half of 2025. 

Demand has stabilized and from our vantage point at Columbia Forest Products, we expect the rest of the year to track closely to what we’ve seen in recent months.

That steadiness, while perhaps not as exciting as rapid growth, is exactly what the industry needs. It allows manufacturers, distributors and end users to plan with confidence and consistency. 

In business, as in basketball, stability is sometimes the biggest win you can ask for.

The State of 2025: Stability After Volatility

One year ago, forecasts for our industry were clouded with uncertainty. 

Housing starts were uneven, mortgage rates were climbing and remodeling activity sent mixed signals. Many of the predictive tools we relied on in pre-COVID years simply weren’t giving us reliable readings. 

That created, what I called in past articles, a “foggy” market, where you could only see a short distance ahead.

As you know, much of that fog has lifted. Despite higher borrowing costs, housing starts have held up, supported by pent-up demand and strong demographic trends. Remodeling activity is steady, especially among those in higher income brackets. Raw material supply chains, while not perfect, are far more reliable than they were in recent years.

The result is a market that has reached a kind of equilibrium. Prices are not swinging wildly. Lead times are more predictable. Customers and suppliers alike can make plans with a higher degree of confidence.

Outlook for 2026: Modest but Meaningful Growth

Looking ahead, we expect domestic hardwood plywood production to grow 2% to 5% in 2026. It’s modest growth, but after the recent volatility, even small gains matter.

Several factors to consider in this outlook include:

• Single-family housing starts remain a primary driver of plywood demand. High mortgage rates are holding back some buyers, but housing demand stays strong thanks to life events, generational trends and ongoing shortages
  
  

• Remodeling activity is expected to soften somewhat, particularly in large-scale projects. But the overall trend toward improving and updating older housing remains intact. Hardwood plywood continues to be the material of choice for kitchen and bathroom renovations across the country.
  
  

• Inflation has cooled somewhat from its 2022–2023 peaks but remains above the historical 2% target. We are expecting around a 4% increase in the CPI in 2026. GDP growth is expected to be modest, creating an environment of slow but steady economic progress. For industries like ours, modest growth paired with stability is almost always better than rapid, unpredictable swings.
  
  

• Access to domestic timber and veneers remains a strength for Columbia and many producers are operating with greater efficiency. Investments in new production technology are paying off with higher yields and better consistency.
  
  

• Shipping and logistics have normalized since pandemic-era bottlenecks, reducing one of the most persistent challenges for manufacturers in recent times.
  
  

• Tariffs remain a potential wildcard. Any trade limits on Canadian or Southeast Asian hardwood plywood could quickly change the competitive landscape. It might give U.S. producers a short-term lift, but could also bring more price and supply volatility. For now, with no new policies in play, the market is fairly stable.

While the overall outlook is positive, risks remain. High mortgage rates could continue to weigh on housing affordability. If inflation proves more stubborn than expected, consumers may have less spending power, especially for discretionary remodeling. And of course, geopolitical or policy changes could affect trade in unpredictable ways

It’s important to remember that plywood demand is not infinitely elastic. Sharp price increases, whether from tariffs or raw material shortages, could push downstream industries to cut costs or switch to other materials.

That’s why maintaining a balance between competitiveness, quality and affordability remains critical. Producers would do well to prioritize cost-cutting while maintaining quality and reliability.

If there’s a theme for the hardwood plywood market right now, it’s a return to fundamentals. Just as my coach urged me to play within my strengths — attacking the rim to score or assist, moving quickly on transition and focusing on defense and rebound — our industry is leaning on efficiency, reliability and service. On time, on budget, on quality.

At Columbia Forest Products, our focus remains on delivering sustainable, high-quality hardwood plywood with reliable supply and stable pricing. We stay proactive, watching market changes, working with policymakers and listening to our partners. All so we can adapt quickly when needed.

My coach’s advice rings as true in business as it did on the court: sometimes the best way to win is to stick to the basics until opportunities arise. That’s exactly what the hardwood plywood industry needs right now. If we do it well, together, we’ll be well-positioned to take advantage of the second half of the decade.

 Nicholas Allison