Industry Outlook: Waiting for the Next Signal

By Nick Allison, Analytics Manager

Recently, I was at one of my sons’ basketball games. Early in the game, my son drove to the hoop but did so in a rushed way. As an experienced former player, I knew he could have scored had he let the play develop and waited for an opening once the help-side defender had committed. My son would have had either a short-range shot or set up a teammate for a layup. Instead, he rushed into two defenders and was lucky to be bailed out by a generous foul call.

At halftime, I pulled him aside, saying: “You didn’t need to rush and decide right away. Sometimes the best move is to wait and let the play develop. Be patient and wait for the right time to commit.”

This is a lesson that shows up in many areas of life outside of sports. In fast-moving situations, there’s a natural urge to act quickly—to pick a direction and commit. But in certain environments, acting too early can be more costly than being patient. Sometimes the right move is to hold position, stay engaged, and wait for clarity.

As we move through the middle of the year, the hardwood plywood market finds itself in exactly that type of situation.

From a demand perspective, the market continues to show resilience. Recent shipment trends indicate steady momentum, with volumes in recent weeks running ahead of expectation. This reflects an underlying demand base that remains firm despite broader macroeconomic pressures like oil prices and ongoing conflict overseas. This demand has been steady across all three primary channels serviced by CFP. All three are impacted by universal factors like the macroeconomy and building activity, but each has other variables that uniquely influence demand in a specific channel.

In the aggregate, demand is neither accelerating nor declining in a meaningful way. The market has settled into a steady-state environment—stable but lacking a strong directional push for the time being.

Housing-related indicators, particularly new construction, have shown intermittent softness as interest rates and affordability pressures remain in play. For the hardwood plywood market, this combination reinforces the current dynamic that there is enough demand to sustain steady volumes but there is not enough certainty—positive or negative—to drive a meaningful shift. While recent demand has been rather predictable, the bigger question in the market moving forward is on the supply side. Government shutdowns delayed the final ruling on a trade case that will have an important impact on the market in 2H 2026 and FY 2027.

In layman’s terms, the industry has moved into “wait-and-see” mode. Buyers are cautious but still engaged, suppliers are exercising discipline and flexibility remains a key priority up and down the hardwood plywood vertical. Decisions are still being made, but they are incremental rather than transformational. The focus has shifted from positioning for a defined outcome to maintaining the ability to respond when conditions change.

Looking ahead, the key swing factor remains imports.

More specifically, whether trade actions lead to a sustained tightening of supply—or whether global supply chains adjust and reintroduce competitive pressure through alternative channels or products. The answer to that question will have direct implications for pricing, product mix, and overall market balance in the second half of the year and into 2027.

Just like my son on the basketball court, the market (from manufacturers to distributors to cabinet shops) is in a position where forcing a decision too early could be costly. For now, the better approach is the disciplined one—stay close to customers, manage mix carefully and maintain operational flexibility…wait for the play to develop.

Because when the next signal finally emerges from the noise, those who have remained patient and prepared will be in the best position to move decisively and succeed.

I hope all of you are having a safe and fun Summer! Don’t forget the sunscreen!