March 2026 Industry Outlook

Just yesterday (as of the time of writing), I had the chance to dig into some new data released by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), and I was pleased to see they are painting an optimistic picture for the remodeling market over the next several years. While many sectors of residential construction have been on a roller coaster since the days of COVID shutdowns and the subsequent recovery, remodeling has shown an impressive level of consistency. In fact, the NAHB’s Remodeling Market Index (RMI) has stayed above the break‑even mark for 24 straight quarters! That’s six full years of remodelers reporting market conditions as more “good” than “bad”. What an incredibly consistent run for remodeling.

What’s driving all this activity? According to NAHB economists, several tailwinds exist that aren’t going anywhere anytime soon. First, the United States’ housing stock is aging fast. The average home in the U.S. is now 41 years old, up from 31 in 2006. Older homes need work, and homeowners are increasingly willing to invest in upgrades, especially after the dramatic rise in home values and prices post-COVID. More home equity means homeowners have more financial flexibility (home equity loans) to update the kitchen, closet, bathroom, or do the whole house remodel they’ve long considered.

Another major factor is the mortgage rate lock-in effect. Millions of homeowners refinanced into low rates 8-15 years ago and have no interest in trading a ~3% mortgage for a 6+% one. Even though the lock‑in effect is easing slightly, it’s still strong enough that many households are choosing to remodel rather than move. Currently, existing home sales are at the levels of the housing crash! If one’s love for one’s current mortgage rate is stronger than the hate for one’s home, it’s time to remodel.

The numbers back this up. The number of remodeling firms has nearly doubled since 2000, jumping from 69,000 to 128,000 as of 2025. Home improvement spending has also climbed, rising from 33% of residential construction spending in 2007 to 44% in 2025. Despite the increases in volumes, the types of projects people are choosing haven’t changed much: bathrooms, kitchens, and the occasional whole‑house remodel continue to dominate. Not only are the first two everyday, high-use areas, but these are key areas that help with attracting future home-buyers.

Another emerging trend is “aging‑in‑place.” More older homeowners want to stay where they are for the rest of their lives after retirement. According to the RMI survey, 56% of remodelers are doing at least some aging‑in‑place modifications. Requests for these features have increased significantly over the past five years. This isn’t a fad—it’s a demographic shift due to the sheer numbers of the Baby Boomer generation choosing how to spend their later years.

Looking ahead, NAHB expects remodeling activity to grow another 3% in 2026 and 2% in 2027, even after adjusting for inflation. That’s steady, sustainable growth for a key—maybe THE key—driver of demand for domestic hardwood plywood producers. As one industry expert put it, remodelers who set clear KPIs and benchmark themselves against peers are the ones best positioned to capitalize on this wave. Data‑driven decision‑making wins again.

And for those of us in the world of premium materials, this trend is of the utmost importance. When homeowners choose to remodel instead of moving, they’re not just replacing what’s broken or worn out -they’re customizing the spaces they live in every day to what they really want. Our panels, veneers, and specialty products often find their way into the cabinets, fixtures, closets, and built‑ins selected by homeowners who want to surround themselves with the best the domestic market has to offer. These are discerning buyers making intentional choices, and Columbia’s materials are right at home in that conversation.

As we look toward 2026 and beyond, it’s refreshing to see a sector with so much stability and upside, especially since new housing starts have been sluggish since the lockdowns (and will likely fare no better in 2026). The remodeling market isn’t just holding steady, it’s growing, evolving, and becoming an even larger share of residential construction. We love seeing Columbia products be a part of a homeowner’s dream kitchen or bathroom and we thank you for all your continued support.

Nicholas Allison

Analytics Manager

Columbia Forest Product